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The return of the pendulum

Not only that, even the unofficial betting trends have now started changing. Odds which were being placed on the Congress party have now come down to a trickle, but as of Thursday evening, it was the Congress party that was still ahead. But the confidence with which bets were being placed on the Congress have given way to extreme caution as campaigning draws to a close.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi

After several pre-poll surveys over the past few months showed the Congress as storming back to power in Karnataka, the pendulum seems to have started its return to the other side.

Not only that, even the unofficial betting trends have now started changing. Odds which were being placed on the Congress party have now come down to a trickle, but as of Thursday evening, it was the Congress party that was still ahead. But the confidence with which bets were being placed on the Congress have given way to extreme caution as campaigning draws to a close.

With each passing day bringing bad news for the Congress party on various fronts at the national level — the Coalgate scandal, the Chinese incursions and the Sarabjit murder in a Pakistani jail — observers noticed a trickle-down effect in the minds of the people of Karnataka.

However, the pendulum has not swung decisively to the other side: Pointers now are that the state is heading for a well and truly hung assembly.

Even a survey conducted for the BJP by the Mumbai-based Prabhodhan Research Group, the BJP is now set to gain at least 81 seats, while the Congress party tally has come down to 95 seats.

That this was essentially war between the BJP and the Congress also became clear with the Prabodhan survey indicating that the Janata Dal (Secular) getting about 27 seats, KJP eight seats, the Reddy brothers’ BSR Congress Party five and independents bagging eight seats out of a 225 seat assembly (of which one seat is for a nominated member of the Anglo-Indian community.

As compared to the earlier polls, the trends for the JD(S), KJP and others were more or less the same.

A survey carried out in January this year had shown the Congress getting about 133 seats, but this figures started coming down and by March, was predicted that the Congress would get anywhere between 112 and 126 seats.

It was widely expected that the BJP would lose in the state because its image had taken a beating thanks to former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa’s shenanigans and the corruption muck that appeared to have stuck to the ruling party.

Indeed, the people of Karnataka were angry with the goings in a party that they had voted as an alternative to the Congress and the “third front” like the Janata Dal (Secular) and its earlier avatars.

The anger was well and truly deserved by the BJP, but by December, Yeddyurappa was out and formed his own Karnataka Janata Paksha with an avowed stance to destroy the BJP.

He tried his level best to rope in several ministers who were seen as close to him; in the end only two crossed over.

As the Congress was being shown as gaining tremendously, many deserted the BJP to join the main opposition party in the state assembly.

With Yeddyurappa and others out, and the BJP shouting from the rooftops that the party had been cleansed of corrupt elements, the anger started dissipating slowly, but there was nothing to indicate that the voters would return back to the BJP in droves.

UdupiNet started noting that the people of Karnataka were also watching developments that were taking place in New Delhi. The image of the Congress was also getting battered — even more seriously than that of the BJP in Karnataka — and like many other Indians, they also sat up to take note of that new messiah: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

Modi’s SRCC talk (and later at other fora) became a hot topic and there was a wish that Karnataka should have someone like Modi as the chief minister.

In fact, the Open magazine carried out a nation-wide survey and found that the people would prefer Modi over anyone else, including Rahul, if he were the candidate for prime ministership. What is of interest is that Modi was a choice even in the southern states, including Karnataka with an impressive figure 55 as against26 for Rahul.

The Karnataka BJP was hoping on Modi to campaign extensively in the state, but the Gujarat chief minister kept them on tenterhooks. The Congress started a whisper campaign that Modi was loathe to come to Karnataka since the BJP was a sinking ship.

But on April 28, Modi addressed a well-attended meeting in Bangalore and this charged up the BJP cadres and a large section of the voters.

On Thursday, Modi followed it up by two back-to-back meetings, the first in Mangalore in coastal Karnataka, and the second at Belgaum in North Karnataka.

Modi’s meetings were a hit and his Bangalore address was relayed live over the internet and was displayed on a mobile big screen in other places, including Udupi.

If a survey was to be held today, it would have shown the BJP gaining even more, almost equal to if not more than the Congress party.

Another factor that worked against the Congress — which has the uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — was the infighting that severely damaged its prospects.

There were several claimants for the chief ministership — the party has not seen such an open, shameless desire for power from amongst its leadership anywhere — and many rebels entered the fray in several constituencies.

Some like former chief minister and party veteran S M Krishna openly expressed his unhappiness with the party for having sidelined him totally while distributing tickets.

What has also damaged the Congress severely that their charges of corruption against the BJP could not stick since it gave tickets to three high-profile mining barons, whose companies were indicted by the Supreme Court.

The party also had all their big guns in the battle for Karnataka: party president Sonia Gandhi, her son Rahul and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. However, their speeches did not have the fire and brimstones that were expected of them, tired as they were with the continuous flak they were facing from all sides in New Delhi. In fact, it was reported that people had started moving out even before Manmohan Singh could finish reading out his speech at one election rally.

The main topcis they covered were corruption, power generation and development.

But they failed to impress since they were also seen being as corrupt if not more than the BJP in Karnataka.

It is not to say that Modi was the BJP’s lone campaigner in Karnataka. In fact a galaxy of leaders such as L K Advani, Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, campaigned extensively.

But credit must be given to Modi for not only effectively demolishing the Congress party, but also painting a shining image of the post-Yeddyurappa BJP in development terms.

Only Modi could successfully bring back the BJP’s image as a pro-development party, though the others, including the state leadership, tried hard to convey the good work that their party had done.

One this is sure, though. Modi has definitely given sleepless nights to the Congress leadership and tonight, even if they fall asleep after a couple of tiring weeks, they would have nightmares in which Modi would appear to them as Gabbar Singh or Thakur Baldev Singh!

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Survey: Only Modi can rescue BJP in Karnataka

Modi has campaigned in Karnataka on earlier occasions, but what is going to make the difference is the high-decibel pitch in his favour as a potential prime ministerial candidate, which has set the imagination of the urban and middle class voters in Karnataka — as all over India — on fire. Modi is seen has having a clean, non-corrupt image, and if he can convince the Karnataka voters that that the Karnataka BJP will be following his line of good governance, we might see the voters forgiving the party.

The hopes of Karnataka BJP are pinned only on Narendra Modi The hopes of Karnataka BJP are pinned only on Narendra Modi

Parkala Observer: Shrikant N ShenoyAnother survey, another set of figures, the same old story. The Bharatiya Janata Party is set to suffer a humiliating defeat in the Karnataka assembly elections to be held on May 5 and the Congress party it set to win. Yaaawwnnn!

But wait, there’s something new this time: The same survey shows the BJP may yet be able to turn around its fortunes if Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi campaigns in the southern state.

Sixtyfour per cent of those surveyed for the Headlines Today and C-Voter from January to March 2013 believe Modi can help the BJP recover lost ground in Karnataka.

C-Voter has been carrying out surveys every month for various media outlets since the past few months on voter moods in Karnataka and has been indicating the swings in the fortunes of the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress party in the state.

While earlier surveys showed monthly results, the present survey published by Headlines Today (read here) showed results of the poll carried out over three months, i.e., from, January 2013 to March 2013.

But what is interesting to note that even though the Congress party is set to win, it is seeing a steady decline in popularity from a high of 136 in December 2012 to 118 in the latest C-Voter Survey. Headlines Today website gives the figures for Congress as follows: Jan. 2013: 133, Feb. 2013: 122 and March 2013: 118.

Another give-away from the survey was that former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa will play a spoilsport for the BJP, but his Karnataka Janatha Paksha (KJP) by itself would not gain more than a few seats.

This means that the Congress will be gaining at the expense of the the BJP-KJP rivalry and not due to any any new-found love for the party led by Sonia-Rahul mother-son duo.

Now, let’s see the vote share in terms of percentage. While the Congress is expected to gain from 80 seats in the current assembly to 118, their vote share is likely to drop by one per cent from 35 per cent to 34 per cent.

On the other hand, the BJP is likely to lose a vote share of six per cent from 34 per cent to 28 per cent, resulting in the fall of seats from 110 seats to 80 seats.

In the third place is the JD(S), retaining its vote share of 19 per cent, but gains in seats from 28 to 35. The KJP with a vote share of eight per cent is predicted to gain about 12 seats for the first time in the state. This is not enough for Yeddyurappa to play kingmaker as he so openly desires.

Now, if Modi campaigns in Karnataka, there is a high probability that the vote share loss of six per cent could be arrested and perhaps even reversed.

Modi has campaigned in Karnataka on earlier occasions, but what is going to make the difference is the high-decibel pitch in his favour as a potential prime ministerial candidate, which has set the imagination of the urban and middle class voters in Karnataka — as all over India — on fire.

Modi is seen has having a clean, non-corrupt image, and if he can convince the Karnataka voters that that the Karnataka BJP will be following his line of good governance, we might see the voters forgiving the party. The main reason why the voters are put off in the first place is because of the perceived corruption by Yeddyurappa and his cohorts.

But observers say apart from the corruption issue, the biggest drawback for the party is the issue of non-performance. They see present incumbent Jagadish Shettar as a non-functional chief minister. Some perceive Shettar as Yeddyurappa’s man since it was at the instance of the latter that D V Sadananada Gowda was removed as chief minister. Sadananda Gowda was not only seen as non-corrupt, but also as a dynamic chief minister.

It was Yeddyurappa’s fear that Gowda would prevent his return as chief minister that led him to demand the latter’s ouster. It was seen as foolish if not an outright blunder that the BJP high command led by Nitin Gadkari not only tolerated Yeddyurappa’s shenanigans, but also gave in to his irrational demands.

Incidentally, an earlier survey had shown that Sadananda Gowda was the best chief minister between the three of them.

It remains to be seen how the Modi factor plays out. The BJP also realises this and are keen to utilise his services for as long as possible and for as many regions and constituencies as possible. They have chalked out a programme of 15 conventions over about a week in several districts spread over different parts of the state.

They want his help to mainly attract the youth and women, who are clearly impressed by the Gujarat chief minister.

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